raaaagelic · NL25 GG Ontario · 6-max · ~73% rec pool · 100bb

The Value-First Playbook

You take the passive branch at almost every node: fold the raise, check the bet, give up the turn, fold the river. Every rule here moves you one click toward value and targeted aggression — and against a calling-station pool, aggression means thin value, not bluffs.

DO this STOP doing this target

The one question at every decision

"Am I about to take the passive option out of habit?" If yes — and you have a pair+ or position or initiative — bet or defend instead.

Sizing Quick-Reference

bb figures assume a 2.5bb baseline open · lean to the SMALLER end on GG (preflop rake)

Preflop
Open (RFI)	2.2–2.5bb · BTN 2–2.2 · SB 3
Iso vs limper(s)	~5bb +1bb / limper
3-bet, in position	3× open ≈ 7.5–8bb
3-bet, out of position	4–4.5× open ≈ 10–11bb
Squeeze (raise + caller)	4.5–5× open ≈ 11–13bb, +1 size/caller
4-bet, in position	2.2× the 3-bet ≈ 17–18bb
4-bet, out of position	2.5–3× the 3-bet ≈ 22–24bb
Postflop (bb shown for a ~5.5bb single-raised pot)
Flop c-bet — dry / range bet	⅓ pot ≈ 2bb
Flop c-bet — wet / polar	⅔–¾ pot ≈ 4bb
Check-raise flop	3–3.5× their bet (≈4× on wet)
Turn barrel	⅔ pot (geometric)
Probe turn	½–⅔ pot
River value	⅔–pot · size UP vs stations

Preflop

defend targeted · keep stealing

Keep stealing wide from BTN / CO / SB when folded to.

Steals that win pre are rake-free — your only untaxed money on GG. Don't tighten here.

Open 2.2–2.5bb · BTN 2–2.2bb · SB 3bb (you're OOP)

Fold to 3-bets is fine vs unknown / rec 3-bettors — but DEFEND vs regs and in position.

Recs 3-bet value only, so folding borderline is correct. The leak is folding the same vs regs who bluff-3bet. IP, flat 99+, AQs, AJs, KQs, suited aces; 4-bet QQ+/AK + A5s/A4s. Stop auto-folding AQs / JJ / AKo when you'll have position.

When you 4-bet: 2.2× the 3-bet IP (≈17–18bb) · 2.5–3× OOP (≈22–24bb)

Fold to 3Bet you 82% · ~62% blendedFold to 4Bet you 71% · ~50%

3-bet and squeeze more — especially for value/iso vs limpers and vs a raise + rec caller.

Recs over-fold to squeezes or call and play face-up. Either outcome prints. Lean to the smaller sizes on GG since 3-bet pots get raked preflop.

3-bet 3× open IP (≈7.5–8bb) · 4–4.5× OOP (≈10–11bb) · squeeze 4.5–5× open (≈11–13bb), +1 size/caller

3Bet you 5% · ~8-9%Squeeze you 3% · ~7-8%

Defend your BB wider vs steals — call more suited/connected hands closing the action, 3-bet the top.

You fold your BB too often; vs a wide BTN steal you're getting a price to see flops with the information edge of acting first being closed.

3-bet the top to 3.5–4× the open (≈9–11bb vs a 2.5bb BTN open)

BB defend you ~27% · 40%+

Flop

as the raiser

Dry / A-high / K-high boards → small ⅓-pot range bet.

You have range + nut advantage; the capped BB can't punish a small bet. Bet your whole range cheaply.

⅓ pot ≈ 2bb into a ~5.5bb single-raised pot

Wet / dynamic boards → bet bigger (⅔–¾) with value + strong draws, and check your air.

Don't fire thin bluff-cbets into a wide calling range. Polarize by your actual hand vs this pool.

⅔–¾ pot ≈ 4bb into a ~5.5bb pot

Stop "balanced" thin bluff c-bets. C-bet value, protection, and good draws — give up the trash.

Balance is for opponents who punish imbalance. Recs don't.

Flop

as the caller / BB vs steal

Check-raise more — strong made hands + strong draws, especially on wet boards.

You almost never do this. Recs call check-raises with far too much; it's a value engine, not just a bluff.

Raise to 3–3.5× their c-bet · ~4× on wet boards

X/R flop you ~3% · 8%+

When the raiser checks back the flop = weakness. Mark it: you're attacking the turn (Rule 14).

A check-back caps them. That's a green light, not a spot to check-check again.

Turn

YOUR LEAK STREET

Turn Self-Check Card — say it before every decision

"Read it · Name it · Attack it."

READ IT · CTE

Capped? · Type (reg / rec)? · Elastic (do they fold to size)?

NAME IT

"Do worse hands call?" → Yes = VALUE = BET. Stop downgrading real value to "showdown value."

ATTACK IT

Aggression is the default. The one question: "Why am I NOT betting?"

Checked to me

BET — build the river.

They showed weakness

STAB / PROBE — checked back flop or checked the turn = green light.

They barreled

CONTINUE every pair & draw. Raise = honest → respect. Small / rec bet = bluffy → call wider.

Sizing

BIG vs sticky / inelastic · SMALL or polar vs foldy.

Exception 1

Air vs a station → give up. Don't bluff the inelastic.

Exception 2

Marginal vs a rec's BIG scare-card bet → fold. Their big aggression is value.

Latest session (Jun 2026) — directional, N=322

Tiny single session, so signal not verdict. The leak is narrowing to the thin-value tier. Defense was clean (continued every pair/draw, folded air, no bluff-into-station) and obvious value betting improved — at bet-or-check turn spots you bet your clear value 3/5. The residual: of marginal hands (2nd pair / weak top pair / thin value) you checked 7/9. So: you now bet obvious value, but still check thin value. See R10b & R14. reports/session_2026-06-09.md

VALUE DEFAULT: after a called flop c-bet (e.g. BTN vs BB), barrel every top-pair-decent-kicker-or-better.

This single habit fixes your low Turn CBet AND your passivity-driven showdown rate at once. Your high W$SD is NOT strength — it's an artifact of checking down too many cheap pots (low WWSF 43%): you win a big share of showdowns because you build so few. They call worse — make them. (updated from data)

~⅔–¾ pot (≈ 6–7bb into a ~9bb turn pot)

Turn CBet you 48% · ~65%W$SD high + WWSF 43% low = passivity, not strength · WWSF ~50%

10b

STOP CHECKING BACK VALUE IP — now including your THIN value. Bet back your made hands when checked to / after a flop check-through (N1/N4) — paired & two-pair boards especially. If your hand beats a worse hand that would call — including 2nd pair / weak top pair — bet it (thin value).

Your single biggest measured leak: you check back made hands IP and forfeit two streets. The leak has now narrowed to the thin-value tier — you've started betting your obvious value, but you still downgrade 2nd pair / weak top pair to "showdown value" and check it. That's the next layer of the same passivity. (from data: ~+2,637bb forgone across 578 value check-backs, +4.56bb/hand)

70–100% pot for strong value (turn→river geometric); thin value: a smaller ⅓–½ pot to get called by worse — but bet, don't check

IP value check-back you ~30% · bet itlatest-session signal: clear value bet 3/5, marginal value checked 7/9 · bet the thin tier

Add a bluff barrel only on these cards:

Overcards that favor you — a fresh A, K (sometimes Q).Your range has the Ax/Kx; BB's flop-calling pairs & draws hate it. e.g. flop 8♦7♣3♠, turn K.

Cards that give your bluff equity — you turn a flush draw, OESD, or gutshot + overcard.Now you have outs if called; the barrel isn't pure air.

Scare cards you credibly rep and they don't — flush/straight completer when you're the one with it in range.Use sparingly vs stations — they call rivers, so the fold equity is lower than you think.

Bluff size: ⅔ pot or a touch SMALLER vs stations (don't pay them off) — but you already under-bluff, so this is a minor add, not the fix

Note: the data clears you of "over-bluffing the stations" — you bet air only ~20%, well below standard, and air-bluffing is your only −EV bet. Add these bluffs confidently; the real money is in Rules 10/10b/14 (value & aggression), not more bluffing. (confirmed from data — feared leak disproven)

11b

TURN BLOCKER CHECK — before you barrel, ask: do my cards BLOCK their value AND UNBLOCK their folds? The best barrel cards hold a blocker to the hands that continue and hold none of the busted-draw cards villain would fold — so those folds stay live. (from data)

BLOCK their value

Hold a card that wrecks their continues: the suit-A (or any card of the suit) on a flush-completing turn, the paired rank on a board-pairing turn, a card that makes the straight on a straight-completing turn, an A/K on an overcard turn.Fewer of their nutted/strong combos exist when you hold a piece of them.

UNBLOCK their folds

Hold none of the busted-draw cards villain would fold — keep their air in their range so it can fold to your barrel.If you hold their missed draws, those folds aren't there to win.

THIN VALUE — it FLIPS

For thin value, bet when you do NOT block the worse hands that would call — you want villain to hold the hands that pay you.Opposite of the bluff logic: unblock their calls, not their folds.

Refines R11 (which turn cards to bluff) and complements R14; the same block-value / unblock-folds frame drives river bluffs in R16. For the data-backed best turn cards to barrel when you hold the blocker, see reports/blocker_study.md.

GIVE UP (check) on bad barrel cards: middle bricks that connect with BB's calls (straighteners / two-pair cards on low boards) and pure bricks with no equity.

Don't fire a second barrel with air just to keep the story alive. A profitable river bluff has to pay for the flop + turn bets too — and vs this pool it usually won't.

Going for stacks (lower SPR / 3-bet pots) → geometric sizing: ~⅔–¾ turn → river shove. Size value bigger, bluffs smaller.

Your turn sizing is context-blind (~½ pot everywhere, every card, every opponent). Fix it: size UP your value (esp. vs sticky recs who don't fold), and DON'T over-size your few bluffs — downsize or check air. In a 100bb single-raised pot you often can't get it all in by the river — that's fine; geometric matters most once SPR is low. (updated from data)

your sizing: ~½ pot regardless · value bigger / bluffs smaller

13b

SIZING BY ELASTICITY — once you've decided to bet, pick the size off their range. Root question: is their range CAPPED (no nutted hands) or UNCAPPED (can have the goods)? (from data — cures context-blind ~½-pot sizing, R13)

Global correction: a medium-strength made hand is VALUE → BET, not "SDV → check." You systematically mis-file thin value as SDV and check it — that's the ~+2,637bb R10b leak. Only a true bluff-catcher with zero thin-value potential is SDV → check. (corrected)

UNCAPPED · they FASTPLAY

If they'd raise their nuts, their flats are effectively capped. VALUE → bet SMALL (they'd have raised the strong stuff). BLUFF → small flop/turn, medium river.

UNCAPPED · they TRAP

If they slowplay, their range stays uncapped. VALUE → bet BIG to charge traps — but only if you still beat most of their continuing range, else go MEDIUM (don't value-own into slowplayed nuts). BLUFF → GIVE UP (check), small river stab at most — don't fire into a non-folding trappy range.

CAPPED · INELASTIC (sticky / stations)

Bluff-catchers that call regardless. VALUE → bet BIG, maximize. BLUFF → GIVE UP — do NOT bluff. Corrected from the source chart's "big turn": bluffing into hands that don't fold is −EV — same fix as don't-bluff-recs (R11/R14c, R16).

CAPPED · NO inelastic (elastic / foldy)

VALUE → bet SMALL (keep their weak range in; a big bet folds them out). BLUFF → small turn, BIG river (polarize where fold equity peaks).

Big value vs inelastic · small value vs elastic = the cure for ~½-pot-everywhere · for raw magnitudes & geometry see R13 + the Sizing Quick-Reference

Overlay scope: this is after you've decided to bet. For acting when checked to / probing see R14; for facing a bet see R14b; for stopping medium-value check-backs see R10b.

PROBE & STAB FAR MORE — when the raiser checks back the flop, probe the turn (N9); when the pre-aggressor checks the turn, stab (N8). Prioritize paired & brick turns. When first to act or checked to, also stab your THIN value — 2nd pair / weak top pair that beats a worse call.

You bet these at roughly half the reg rate. Betting earns ~+1.9bb (probe) / +5.7bb (stab) more than checking in your own data, and stabbing is the one leak still getting WORSE over time. The residual gap is the marginal/thin-value tier: you fire your obvious value but still check 2nd pair / weak top pair in probe/stab spots — those beat a worse call too, so bet them. (updated from data)

Size 33–75% pot — NOT under ⅓ (small bets don't fold them out or get max value) · thin value → lean to the smaller end so worse hands call

Probe (N9) you 18% · ~35%Stab (N8) you 29% · ~45%

14b

As the caller: STOP OVER-FOLDING TURN BARRELS. Continue all pairs + decent draws & better marginals vs a single barrel. But fold to turn RAISES — they're honest.

You fold ~50% facing barrels vs the pool's ~42%. Calling beats folding for your draws & marginals at every node. The bluffiest spot is a delayed lead (villain checked back flop, then leads turn / N5) — yet you fold it MOST. Continue there. Turn raises, though, are 83–90% value for both types — over-fold to a raise, not to a single barrel. (updated from data — corrected from a prior data bug; H4 now confirmed)

Defend wider vs single barrels & small leads · use the rare turn raise as value + best draws

Fold-to-barrel you ~50% · pool ~42%delayed leads (N5) you fold 59% · bluffiest spot — call wider

14c

PLAYER-TYPE DIALS (PS only — GG is anonymized, so apply the passivity fixes even harder there):

REC

Bluffier when betting AND a calling station. → value-bet thinner & bigger, bluff-catch wider, and don't bluff them — they won't fold and they won't bluff-raise.Rec bets run 5–12 pts more air than regs; rec turn raises are still 83% value.

REG

Over-fold to scare cards. → barrel & probe regs more on flush-completing / overcard turns; respect their barrels & paired-turn bets (90%+ value).Regs fold most to aggression on the cards that scare their range.

BOTH

Board-pairing turns = nut-peddling (89–94% value when either type bets). Don't bluff into paired turns; give bettors credit.

River

where the money actually is

VALUE DEFAULT — bet thin. Any top-pair-good-kicker+ that beats a worse call should bet. They pay.

This is your single biggest dollar leak vs this pool. You're checking back hands that are clean value.

⅔–pot · size UP vs stations who don't fold — let them pay max

River CBet you 53% · ~73%WWSF you 43% (too low) · ~50%

Bluff rivers rarely. Only no-showdown-value hands that block their value / unblock their folds — and only if the whole line made sense.

Stations don't fold enough to make river bluffing pay. Your low bluff frequency is actually a feature here.

Facing a river bet: vs a REC betting big → fold bluff-catchers. vs a REG → call wider.

Pool under-bluffs, so rec river aggression = value. But your river calls have historically been very profitable, which means you under-call the regs. Split your response by player type.

3-Bet Pots

LOW SPR = SIMPLER

Same principles, different machine. The low SPR removes decisions — it doesn't add danger. The "out of control" feeling is just the pot resolving fast.

Flop SPR: single-raised ≈ 9–13 · 3-bet pot ≈ 4–5.5

Decide your stack-off on the FLOP, then commit. Classify once: get-it-in / pot-control / give-up — and stop re-litigating it every street.

At SPR ~4 most hands classify themselves. The spiral happens when you re-decide on every card. Pre-planning the flop is the entire fix for the fear.

As the 3-bettor: small c-bet, high frequency. Your range is condensed and strong, so you have a big range advantage on most boards.

A ⅓-pot bet here is the START of a stack-off line, not a passive poke — it sets up the turn and river automatically.

⅓ flop (≈7bb into ~22bb) → ⅔ turn → river jam = geometric, gets it all in

Stack off LIGHTER for value. Top-pair-good-kicker+, overpairs, and strong combo draws are get-it-in hands at this SPR — especially vs this pool.

The 3-bet-pot version of your showdown leak: stop getting scared off TPTK and overpairs. They're gold here, and recs pay them off.

your instinct: check/pot-control · get it in

Bluffs need equity — semi-bluff with draws, combo draws, and overcards-with-backdoors. Give up pure air on the flop.

You don't have the streets to barrel air off when the money's in by the turn. No equity = no bluff.

OOP as the 3-bettor: fix it upstream — tighten the range. 3-bet a linear, value-leaning range from the blinds; vs recs go even more value-heavy.

OOP 3-bet pots only spiral when you got there with too light/bluffy a range and then get stuck with air. A robust range that flops well makes the postflop easy: bet your strong hands, give up when you whiff.

Range ≈ TT+, AQ+, AJs/KQs + a few suited bluffs · 3-bet 4–4.5× (≈10–11bb)

When YOU got 3-bet and called: you're the capped one. Don't bloat without a real hand. Continue pairs + decent equity (don't over-fold vs recs), float more IP, give up more OOP.

Flip side of the same coin — respect that your range is the weaker one here, and let your strong hands do the work rather than fighting for every pot.